Nigeria must survive and prosper beyond Buhari or Jonathan!

I need to preface this article with a few clarifications. I have taken a
long sabbatical leave from partisan politics, and it is real fun watching
the drama from the balcony. Having had my own share of public
service (I do not need a job from government), I now devote my time
and energy in pursuit of other passions, especially abroad. A few days
ago, I read an article in Thisday entitled “Where is Charles Soludo?”,
and my answer is that I am still there, only that I have been too busy
with extensive international travels to participate in or comment on our
national politics and economy. But I occasionally follow events at
home. Since the survival and prosperity of Nigeria are at stake, the
least some of us (albeit, non-partisan) must do is to engage in public
debate. As the elections approach, I owe a duty to share some of my
concerns.
In September
2010, I wrote a
piece entitled
“2011 Elections:
Let the Real
Debate Begin”
and published by
Thisday. I
understand the
Federal Executive
Council
discussed it, and
the Minister of
Information
rained personal
attacks on me during the press briefing. I noted more than six
newspaper editorials in support of the issues we raised. Beside other
issues we raised, our main thesis was that the macro economy was
dangerously adrift, with little self-insurance mechanisms (and a
prediction that if oil prices fell below $40, many state governments
would not be able to pay salaries). I gave a subtle hint at easy money
and exchange rate depreciations because I did not want to panic the
market with a strong statement. Sadly, on the eve of the next elections,
literally everything we hinted at has happened. Part of my motivation
for this article is that five years after, the real debate is still not
happening.
The presidential election next month will be won by either Buhari or
Jonathan. For either, it is likely to be a pyrrhic victory. None of them
will be able to deliver on the fantastic promises being made on the
economy, and if oil prices remain below $60, I see very difficult months
ahead, with possible heady collisions with labour, civil society, and
indeed the citizenry. To be sure, the presidential election will not be
decided by the quality of ‘issues’ or promises canvassed by the
candidates. The debates won’t also change much (except if there is a
major gaffe by either candidate like Tofa did in the debate with Abiola).
My take is that more than 95% of the likely voters have pretty much
made up their minds based largely on other considerations. A few of us
remain undecided. During my brief visit to Nigeria, I watched some of
the campaign rallies on television. The tragedy of the current
electioneering campaigns is that both parties are missing the golden
opportunity to sensitize the citizenry about the enormous challenges
ahead and hence mobilize them for the inevitable sacrifices they would
be called upon to make soon. Each is promising an El-Dorado.
Let me admit that the two main parties talk around the major
development challenges—corruption, insecurity, economy
(unemployment/poverty, power, infrastructure, etc) health, education,
etc. However, it is my considered view that none of them has any
credible agenda to deal with the issues, especially within the context of
the evolving global economy and Nigeria’s broken public finance. The
UK Conservative Party’s manifesto for the last election proudly
announced that all its programmes were fully costed and were therefore
implementable. Neither APC nor PDP can make a similar claim. A plan
without the dollar or Naira signs to it is nothing but a wish-list. They
are not telling us how much each of their promises will cost and where
they will get the money. None talks about the broken or near bankrupt
public finance and the strategy to fix it.
In response to the question of where the money will come from, I heard
one of the politicians say that the problem of Nigeria was not money
but the management of resources. This is half-truth. The problem is
both. No matter how efficient a father (with a monthly salary of
N50,000) is at managing the family resources, I cannot see how he
could deliver on a promise to buy a brand new Peugeot 406 for each of
his three children in a year. Even with all the loopholes and waste
closed, with increased efficiency per dollar spent, there is still a binding
budget constraint. To deliver an efficient national transport
infrastructure alone will still cost tens of billions of dollars per annum
even by corruption-free, cost-effective means. Did I hear that APC
promises a welfare system that will pay between N5,000 and N10,000
per month to the poorest 25 million Nigerians? Just this programme
alone will cost between N1.5 and N3 trillion per annum. Add to this the
cost of free primary education plus free meal (to be funded by the
federal budget or would it force non-APC state governments to
implement the same?), plus some millions of public housing, etc.
I have tried to cost some of the promises by both the APC and the PDP,
given alternative scenarios for public finance and the numbers don’t
add up. Nigerians would be glad to know how both parties would fund
their programmes. Do they intend to accentuate the huge public debt,
or raise taxes on the soon to-be-beleaguered private businesses, or
massively devalue the naira to rake in baskets of naira from the
dwindling oil revenue, or embark on huge fiscal retrenchment with the
sack of labour and abandonment of projects, and which areas of waste
do they intend to close and how much do they estimate to rake in from
them, etc? I remember that Chief Obafemi Awolowo was asked similar
questions in 1978 and 1979 about his promises of free education and
free medical services. Even as a teenager, I was impressed by how he
reeled out figures about the amounts he would save from various
‘waste’ including the tea/coffee served in government offices. The point
is that at least he did his homework and had his numbers and I give
credit to his team. Some 36 years later, the quality of political debate
and discourse seems to border on the pedestrian. From the quality of
its team, I did not expect much from the current government, but I
must confess that I expected APC as a party aspiring to take over from
PDP to come up with a knock-out punch. Evidently, from what we have
read from the various versions of its manifesto as well as the depth of
promises being made, it does not seem that it has a better offer.
Let me digress a bit to refresh our memory on where we are, and thus
provide the context in which to evaluate the promises being made to
us. Recall that the key word of the 2015 budget is ‘austerity’.
Austerity? This is just within a few months of the fall in oil prices.
History repeats itself in a very cruel way, as this was exactly what
happened under the Shehu Shagari administration. Under the Shagari
government, oil price reached its highest in 1980/81. During the same
period, Nigeria ratcheted up its consumption and all tiers of government
were in competition as to which would out-borrow the other. Huge
public debt was the consequence. When oil prices crashed in early
1982, the National Assembly then passed the Economic Stabilization
(Austerity Measures) Act in one day— going through the first, second,
and third readings the same day. The austerity measures included the
rationing of ‘essential commodities’ and most states owed salary
arrears. Corruption was said to be pervasive, and as Sani Abacha said
in that famous coup speech, ‘unemployment has reached unacceptable
proportions and our hospitals have become mere consulting clinics’.
General Muhammadu Buhari/Tunde Idiagbon regime made the fight
against corruption and restoration of discipline the cardinal point of
their administration which lasted for 20 months. I am not sure they had
a credible plan to get the economy out of the doldrums (although it
must be admitted that poverty incidence in Nigeria as of 1985 when
they left office was a just46%— according to the Federal Office of
Statistics).
We have come full circle. If the experience under Shagari could be
excused as an unexpected shock, what Nigeria is going through now is
a consequence of our deliberate wrong choices. We have always known
that the unprecedented oil boom (in both price and quantity—despite oil
theft) of the last six years is temporary but the government chose to
treat it as a permanent shock. The parallels with the Shagari regime
are troubling. First, at the time of oil boom, Nigeria again went on a
consumption spree such that the budgets of the last five years can best
be described as ‘consumption budgets’, with new borrowing by the
federal government exceeding the actual expenditure on critical
infrastructure. Second, not one penny was added to the stock of foreign
reserves at a period Nigeria earned hundreds of billions from oil. For
comparisons, President Obasanjo met about $5 billion in foreign
reserves, and the average monthly oil price for the 72 months he was in
office was $38, and yet he left $43 billion in foreign reserves after
paying $12 billion to write-off Nigeria’s external debt. In the last five
years, the average monthly oil price has been over $100, and the
quantity also higher but our foreign reserves have been declining and
exchange rate depreciating.
I note that when I assumed office as Governor of CBN, the stock of
foreign reserves was $10 billion. The average monthly oil price during
my 60 months in office was $59, but foreign reserve reached the all-
time peak of $62 billion (and despite paying $12 billion for external
debt, and losing over $15 billion during the unprecedented global
financial and economic crisis) I left behind $45 billion. Recall also that
our exchange rate continuously appreciated during this period and was
at N117 to the dollar before the global crisis and we deliberately
allowed it to depreciate in order to preserve our reserves. My
calculation is that if the economy was better managed, our foreign
reserves should have been between $102 –$118 billion and exchange
rate around N112 before the fall in oil prices. As of now, the reserves
should be around $90 billion and exchange rate no higher than N125
per dollar.
Third, the rate of public debt accumulation at a time of unprecedented
boom had no parallel in the world. While the Obasanjo administration
bought and enlarged the policy space for Nigeria, the current
government has sold and constricted it. What debt relief did for Nigeria
was to liberate Nigerian policymakers from the intrusive conditionalities
of the creditors and thereby truly allowing Nigeria independence in its
public policy. How have we used the independence? Through our own
choices, we have yet again tied the hands of future policymakers. This
time, the debt is not necessarily to foreign creditor institutions/
governments which are organized under the Paris club but largely to
private agents which is even more volatile. We call it domestic debt.
But if one carefully unpacks the bond portfolio, what percentage of it is
held by foreign private agents? And I understand the Government had
removed the speed bumps we kept to slow the speed of capital flight,
and someone is sweating to explain the gyrations in foreign reserves. I
am just smiling!
In sum, the mismanagement of our economy has brought us once more
to the brink. Government officials rely on the artificial construct of debt
to GDP ratio to tell us we can borrow as much as we want. That is
nonsense, especially for an economy with a mono but highly volatile
source of revenue and forex earnings. The chicken will soon come home
to roost. Today, the combined domestic and external debt of the
Federal Government is in excess of $40 billion. Add to this the fact that
abandoned capital projects littered all over the country amount to over
$50 billion. No word yet on other huge contingent liabilities. If oil prices
continue to fall, I bet that Nigeria will soon have a heavy debt burden
even with low debt to GDP ratio. Furthermore, given the current and
capital account regime, it is evident that Nigeria does not have enough
foreign reserves to adequately cover for imports plus short term
liabilities. In essence, we are approaching the classic of what the
Shagari government faced, and no wonder the hasty introduction of
‘austerity measures’ again.
Fourth, poverty incidence and unemployment are also simultaneously at
all-time high levels. According to the NBS, poverty incidence grew to
69% in 2010 and projected to be 71% in 2011, with unemployment at
24%. This is the worst record in Nigeria’s history, and the paradox is
that this happened during the unprecedented oil boom.
One theme I picked up listening to the campaign rallies as well as to
some of the propagandists is the confusion about measuring
government “performance”. Most people seem to confuse ‘inputs’, or
‘processes’ with output. Earlier this month, I had a dinner with a group
of friends (14 of us) and we were chit-chatting about Nigeria. One of
us, an associate of President Jonathan veered off to repeat a
propaganda mantra that Jonathan had outperformed his predecessors.
He also reminded us that Jonathan re-based the GDP and that Nigeria
is now the biggest economy in Africa; etc. It was fun listening to the
response by others. In sum, the group agreed that the President had
‘outperformed’ his predecessors except that it is in reverse order. First,
my friend was educated that re-basing the GDP is no achievement: it is
a routine statistical exercise, and depending on the base year that you
choose, you get a different GDP figure. Re-basing the GDP has nothing
to do with government policy. Besides, as naira-dollar exchange rate
continues to depreciate, the GDP in current dollars will also shrink
considerably soon.
We were reminded of Jonathan’s agricultural ‘revolution’. But someone
cut in and noted that for all the propaganda, the growth rate of the
agricultural sector in the last five years still remains far below the
performance under Obasanjo. One of us reminded him that no other
president had presided over the slaughter of about 15,000 people by
insurgents in a peacetime; no other president earned up to 50% of the
amount of resources the current government earned from oil and yet
with very little outcomes; no other president had the rate of borrowing;
none had significant forex earnings and yet did not add one penny to
foreign reserves but losing international reserves at a time of boom; no
other president had a depreciating exchange rate at a time of export
boom; at no time in Nigeria’s history has poverty reached 71% (even
under Abacha, it was 67 -70%); and under no other president did
unemployment reach 24%. Surely, these are unprecedented records and
he surely ‘outperformed’ his predecessors! What a satire!
One of those present took the satire to some level by comparing
Jonathan to the ‘performance’ of the former Governor of Anambra,
Peter Obi. He noted that while Obi gloated about ‘savings’, there is no
signature project to remember his regime except that his regime took
the first position among all states in Nigeria in the democratization of
poverty—- mass impoverishment of the people of Anambra. According
to the National Bureau of Statistics, poverty rose under his watch in
Anambra from 20% in 2004 (lowest in Nigeria then) to 68% in 2010 (a
238% deterioration!). Our friend likened it to a father who had no idea
of what to do with his resources and was celebrating his fat bank
account while his children were dying of kwashiorkor. He pointed out
that since it is the likes of Peter Obi who are the advisers to Jonathan
on how to manage the economy (thereby confusing micromanagement
which you do as a trader with macro governance) it is little wonder that
poverty is fast becoming another name for Nigeria. It was a very
hilarious evening.
My advice to President Jonathan and his handlers is to stop wasting
their time trying to campaign on his job record. Those who have
decided to vote for him will not do so because he has taken Nigeria to
the moon. His record on the economy is a clear ‘F’ grade. As one
reviews the laundry list of micro interventions the government calls its
achievements, one wonders whether such list is all that the government
could deliver with an unprecedented oil boom and an unprecedented
public debt accumulation. I can clearly see why reasonable people are
worried. Everywhere else in the world, government performance on the
economy is measured by some outcome variables such as: income
(GDP growth rate), stability of prices (inflation and exchange rate),
unemployment rate, poverty rate, etc. On all these scores, this
government has performed worse than its immediate predecessor—
Obasanjo regime. If we appropriately adjust for oil income and debt,
then this government is the worst in our history on the economy. All
statistics are from the National Bureau of Statistics.
Despite presiding over the biggest oil boom in our history, it has not
added one percentage point to the growth rate of GDP compared to the
Obasanjo regime especially the 2003- 07 period. Obasanjo met GDP
growth rate at 2% but averaged 7% within 2003- 07. The current
government has been stuck at 6% despite an unprecedented oil boom.
Income (GDP) growth has actually performed worse, and poverty
escalated. This is the only government in our history where rapidly
increasing government expenditure was associated with increasing
poverty. The director general of NBS stated in his written press
conference address in 2011 that about 112 million Nigerians were living
in poverty. Is this the record to defend? Obama had a tough time in his
re-election in 2012 because unemployment reached 8%. Here,
unemployment is at a record 24% and poverty at an all-time 71% but
people are prancing around, gloating about ‘performance’. As I write,
the Naira exchange rate to the dollar is $210 at the parallel market.
What a historic performance! Please save your breathe and save us the
embarrassment. The President promised Nigeria nothing in the last
election and we did not get value for money. He should this time
around present us with his plan for the future, and focus on how he
would redeem himself in the second term—if he wins!
Sadly the
government’s
economic team
is very weak,
dominated by
self-interested
and self-
conflicted group
of traders and
businessmen,
and so-called
economic team
meetings have
been nothing but
showbiz time.
The very people government exists to regulate have seized the levers of
government as policymakers and most government institutions have
largely been “privatized” to them. Mention any major government
department or agency and someone will tell you whom it has been
‘allocated’ to, and the person subsequently nominates his minion to
occupy the seat. What do you then expect? The economy seems to be
on auto pilot, with confusion as to who is in charge, and government
largely as a constraint. There are no big ideas, and it is difficult to see
where economic policy is headed to. My thesis is that the Nigerian
economy, if properly managed, should have been growing at an annual
rate of about 12% given the oil boom, and poverty and unemployment
should have fallen dramatically over the last five years. This is topic for
another day.
So far, the Government’s response to the self-inflicted crisis is, at best,
laughable. They blame external shocks as if we did not expect them
and say nothing about the terrible policy choices they made. The
National Assembly had described the 2015 budget as unrealistic. The
fiscal adjustments proposed in the 2015 budget simply play to the
gallery and just to pander to our emotions. For a $540 billion economy,
the so-called luxury tax amounts to zero per cent of GDP. If the current
trend continues, private businesses will come under a heavy crunch
soon. Having put economics on its head during the boom time, the
Government now proposes to increase taxes during a prospective
downturn and impose austerity measures. Unbelievable!
Fortuitously, just as he succeeded Shagari when Nigeria faced similar
situations, Buhari is once more seeking to lead Nigeria. But times have
changed, and Nigeria is largely different. First, this is a democracy and
dealing with corruption must happen within the ambit of the rule of law
and due process. Getting things done in a democracy requires
complicated bargaining, especially where the legislature, labour, the
media, and civil society have become strong and entrenched. Second,
the size, structure and institutions of the economy have fundamentally
altered. The market economy, especially the capital market and foreign
exchange market, impose binding constraints and discipline on any
regime. Third, dealing with most of the other issues— insecurity,
unemployment/poverty, infrastructure, health, education, etc, require
increased, smarter, and more efficient spending. Increased spending
when the economy is on the reverse gear?
If oil prices remain between 40- 60 dollars over the next two years, the
current policy regime guarantees that foreign reserves will continue the
precipitous depletion with the attendant exchange rate depreciation, as
well as a probable unsustainable escalation in debt accumulation, fiscal
retrenchment or taxing the private sector with vengeance. The scenario
does not look pretty. The poor choices made by the current government
have mortgaged the future, and the next government would have little
room to manoeuvre and would inevitably undertake drastic but painful
structural adjustments. Nigerians loathe the term ‘structural
adjustment’. With falling real wages and depreciating currency, I can
see any belated attempt by the government to deal with the bloated
public sector pitching it against a feisty labour. I worry about regime
stability in the coming months, and I do not envy the next team.
The seeming crisis is not destiny; it is self-imposed. However, we must
see it as an opportunity to be seized to fundamentally restructure
Nigeria’s political economy, including its fiscal federalism and mineral
rights. The current system guarantees cycles of consumption loop and I
cannot see sustainable long term prosperity without major systemic
overhaul. The proposals at the national conference merely tinker at the
margins. In totality, the outcome of the national conference is to do
more of the same, with minor amendments on the system of sharing
and consumption rather than a fundamental overhaul of the system for
productivity and prosperity. President Jonathan promises to implement
the report of the national conference if he wins. I commend him for at
least offering ‘something’, albeit, marginal in my view. I have not heard
anything from the APC or Buhari regarding the national conference
report or what kind of federalism they envisage for Nigeria.
In Nigeria’s recent history, two examples under the military and civilian
governments demonstrate that where the political will exists, Nigeria
has the capacity to overcome severe challenges. The first was under
President Babangida. Not many Nigerians appreciate that given the
near bankrupt state of Nigeria’s finances and requirements for debt
resolution under the Paris Club, the country had little choice but to
undertake the painful structural adjustment programme (SAP). I want to
state for the record that the foundation for the current market economy
we operate in Nigeria was laid by that regime (liberalization of markets
including market determined exchange rate, private sector-led economy
including licensing of private banks and insurance, de-regulation,
privatization of public enterprises under TCPC, etc). Just abolishing the
import licensing regime was a fundamental policy revolution. Despite
the criticisms, these policy thrusts have remained the pillars of our
deepening market economy, and the economy recovered from almost
negative growth rate to average 5.5% during the regime and poverty
incidence at 42% in 1992.
Under our democratic experience, President Obasanjo inherited a
bankrupt economy (with the lost decade of the 1990’s GDP growth rate
of 2.2% and hence zero per capita income growth for the decade). His
regime consolidated and deepened the market economy structures
(consolidation of the banking system which is powering the emergence
of a new but truly private sector-led economy and simultaneously led
to a new awareness and boom in the capital market;
telecommunications revolution; new pension regime; debt relief which
won for Nigeria policy independence from the World Bank and Paris
Club; deepening of de-regulation and privatization including the
unbundling of NEPA under PHCN for privatization; agricultural
revolution that saw yearly growth rate of over 6% and remains
unsurpassed ever since; sound monetary and fiscal policy and growing
foreign reserves that gave confidence to investors; establishment of the
Africa Finance Corporation which is leading infrastructure finance in
Africa; backward integration policy that saw the establishment and
growth of Dangote cement and others; established ICPC and EFCC to
fight corruption, etc). The economy roared to average yearly growth of
7% between 2003 and 2007 (although average monthly oil price under
his regime was $38), and poverty dropped from estimated 70% in1999
to 54% in 2004. Obasanjo was his own coordinating minister of the
economy and chairman of the economic management team— which he
chaired for 90 minutes every week. I met with him daily. In other words,
he did not outsource economic management.
We expected that the next government after Obasanjo would take the
economy to the next level. So far, we have had two great slogans: the
7-point agenda and currently, the transformation agenda. They remain
empty slogans without content or direction.
Let me suggest that the fundamental challenge for the next government
on the economy can be framed around the goal of creating twelve
million jobs over the next four years to have a dent on unemployment
and poverty. The challenge is to craft a development agenda to deliver
this within the context of broken public finance, and an economy in
which painful structural adjustments will be inevitable if current trends
in oil prices continue. Most other programmes on corruption, security,
power, infrastructure, etc, are expected to be instruments to achieve
this objective.
So far, neither the APC nor the PDP has a credible programme for
employment and poverty reduction. The APC promises to create 20,000
jobs per state in the first year, totalling a mere 720,000 jobs. This
sounds like a quota system and for a country where the new entrants
into the labour market per annum exceed two million. If it was intended
as a joke, APC must please get serious. On the other hand, President
Jonathan targets two million jobs per annum but his strategy for doing
so is a Job Board— another committee of sort. Sorry, Mr. President, a
Job Board is not a strategy. The principal job Nigerians hired you to do
for them is to create jobs for them too. You cannot outsource that job,
Sir. Creating 3 million jobs per annum under the unfolding crisis would
task our creativity and audacity to the limits.
I heard one politician argue that once we fix power, private sector
would create jobs. Not necessarily! Well, this government claims to
have added 1,700MW to the national grid and yet unemployment soars.
Ask Greece, Spain, etc with power and infrastructure and yet with high
unemployment. Structural dislocations play a key role. For example,
currently in Nigeria, it is estimated that more than 60% of graduates of
our educational system are unemployable. You can understand why
many of us are amused when the government celebrates that it has
established twelve more glorified secondary schools as universities. I
thought they would have told us how many Nigerian universities made
it in the league of the best 200 universities in the world. That would
have been an achievement. Surely, creating millions of jobs in this
economy would, among other things, require ‘new money’ and
extraordinary system of coordination among the three tiers of
government plus the private sector. Unfortunately, from what I read, the
CBN is largely likely to be asleep at this time the country needs the
most revolutionary finance. This is a topic for another day. Only the
President can lead this effort. Moreover, we are waiting for the two
parties/candidates to spell out HOW they will create jobs, whether it is
the 20,000 jobs per state by APC or 2 million per annum by President
Jonathan. Let us know how you arrived at the figures. Whichever of the
two that is declared winner will have his job cut out for him, and I
expect him to declare a national emergency on job creation.
Surprisingly, none of the parties/candidates has any grand vision about
African economic integration, led by Nigeria. There is no programme on
how to make the naira the de facto currency of ECOWAS or the
international financial centre that can attract more than $100 billion per
annum. Where is the strategy for orchestrating the revolutionary finance
to power the economy during this downturn? For President Jonathan, I
find it shocking that the most important initiative of his government to
secure the future of the economy by Nigeria refusing to sign the
ruinous Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) with the European
Union is not even being mentioned. President Obasanjo saved Nigeria
from the potential ruin of an ECOWAS single currency while to his credit
Jonathan safeguarded our industrial sector/economy by refusing to
sign the EPA. Or does the government not understand the import of
that? It will be interesting to know the APC’s strategy for exploiting
strategic alliances within Africa, China, and the world for Nigeria’s
prosperity.
If Buhari wins, he will ride on the populist wind for “change”. Most
people I have spoken to who have decided to vote for Buhari do not
necessarily know the specifics of what he would offer or how Nigeria
would be different under him. I asked my driver, Usman, whom he
would vote for President. He responded: “If they no rig the election, na
Buhari everybody go vote for”. I asked him why, and his next response
sums it: “The man dey honest. In short, people just want to see
another face for that villa”. But if he wins, the honeymoon will be brief
and the pressure will be immense to magically deliver a ‘new Nigeria’
with no corruption, no boko haram or insecurity, jobs for everyone, no
poverty, infrastructure and power in abundance, etc. As a first point,
Buhari and his team must realize that they do not yet have a coherent,
credible agenda that is consistent with the fundamentals of the
economy currently. The APC manifesto contains some good principles
and wish-lists, but as a blue print for Nigeria’s security and prosperity,
it is largely hollow. The numbers do not add up. Thus, his first job is to
present a credible development agenda to Nigerians.
The second key challenge for Buhari and his team will be to transit and
transform from a group of what I largely refer to as aggrieved people’s
congregation to build a true political party with a soul from the
patchwork of political associations. It is surely easier to oppose than to
govern. This should not worry us much. After all, even the PDP which
has been in power for 16 years is still an assembly of people held
together by what I refer to as dining table politics. I am not sure how
many members can tell you what their party stands for or its mission
and vision for Nigeria. The third but more difficult agenda is cobbling
together a truly ‘progressive team’ that will begin to pick the pieces.
The lesson of history is that the best leaders have been the ones who
went beyond their narrow provincial enclaves to recruit talents and
mobilize capacities for national transformation. In Nigeria’s history, the
two presidents who made the most fundamental transformation of the
economy, Babangida and Obasanjo, were exceptional in the quality of
the teams they put together. I therefore pray that Buhari will be
magnanimous in victory – if he wins—to put together a ‘team Nigeria’
for the rescue mission.
If Jonathan wins, then God must have been magnanimous to give him
a second chance to redeem himself. Most people I know who support
Jonathan do so either out of self-interest or fear of the unknown. As a
friend summed it: the devil you know is better than the angel you do
not know. One person assured me that we would see a ‘different
Jonathan’ if he wins as he has been rattled by the harsh judgment of
history on his presidency so far. I just pray that he is right. In that
case, I would just draw the President’s attention to two issues:
First, beside the coterie of clowns who literally make a living with the
sing-song of transformation agenda, President Jonathan must know
that it remains an empty slogan. His greatest challenge is how to save
himself from the stranglehold of his largely provincial palace jesters
who tell him he has done better than God, and seek out ‘enemies’ and
friends who can help him write his name in history. Propaganda won’t
do it.
Second, Jonathan must claw back his powers as President of Nigeria.
He largely outsourced them, and must now roll his sleeves for a new
beginning. I take liberty to tell you this brutal truth: if you are not re-
elected, there is little to remember your regime after the next few years.
On 7th January 2004, I made a special presentation to an expanded
economic management team to set agenda for the new year (as chief
economic adviser). The focus of my presentation was for us to identify
seven iroko trees that would be the flagship markers for the
administration as well as how to finance them. I use the same
framework to evaluate your administration. What I say to you, Mr.
President, is that your record of performance so far is like a farmland
filled with grasses. Yes, they are many but there is no tree, let alone
any iroko tree, that stands out. Think about this. The beginning of
wisdom for every President in his second term is to admit that he is
racing against time to cement his legacy. So far, your report card is
not looking great. You need a team of big and bold thinkers, as well as
with excellent execution capacity. So far, it is not working!
Under the executive presidential system, Nigerians elected you to
manage their economy. You cannot outsource that job. Our constitution
envisages a federal coordination of the economy, and that function is
performed by the National Economic Council (NEC) with Vice-President
as chairman. Indeed, the constitution and other laws of Nigeria
envisage the office of the VP as the coordinator on the economy. All
major economic institutions of the federal government are, by law,
chaired by the Vice-President including the national planning (see
functions of the national planning commission as coordinator of federal
government economic and development programmes), debt
management office, National Council on Privatization, etc. As chairman
of National Planning (with Ministers of Finance, Agriculture, CBN
governor, etc as members), the VP oversees the federal planning and
coordination. Then the Constitution mandates the VP as representative
of the federal government to chair the NEC, with only CBN governor and
state governors as members—to coordinate national economy between
federal and states. No minister is a member of NEC. Many people do
not understand the logic of the design of our constitution and the role
of the VP. Of course, the buck stops on the desk of Mr. President. Only
the President and VP have our mandate to govern us. Every other
person is an adviser/assistant. I bet that you will only appreciate this
article AFTER you leave office. Now that you are in power, truth will
only hurt! Be assured that those of us who are prepared to die for
Nigeria will never spare you or anyone else this bitter truth.
Nigeria must survive and prosper beyond Buhari or Jonathan!

Nigeria’s Next President By Pastor Adeboye

THE General Overseer of the Redeemed Christian Church of God (RCCG), Pastor E.A Adeboye, has said only God knows Nigeria’s next president.

Adeboye made the submission on Thursday, at the just-concluded two-day Bible study programme organised by the University of Ibadan (UI) Christian Family Fellowship, at the International Conference Centre, UI.

Citing an example of a highly-placed ambassador who requested to know his opinion about the political future of the country, Adeboye said people waiting for his opinion concerning where the presidential pendulum would swing in February 14 needed not bother themselves, as his opinion did not matter, but that of God.

“Do you know that if we talk more about Jesus than we do about politics, God will take care of politics? One great ambassador asked what my opinion is about what is going on, I said my opinion does not matter. He said that was not what we wanted to hear. I said my opinion does not matter, because what God is going to do is what He will do,” the septuagenarian cleric stated. He said: “When you say you are on the side of a politician, you are on the wrong side ever possible. Because politicians never tell you the truth and you can quote me. Tell them that I said so. Politicians know how to say ‘Yes’ and ‘No’ at the same time.”

The annual event started on Tuesday, at 4:00 p.m with other sessions held at 6:00 a.m and 4:00 p.m of Wednesday, as well as 6:00 p.m on Thursday.

Adeboye, who has kept his distance from making public statements on issues relating to the forthcoming general election, while teaching on “Obedience to God’s commands,” enjoined Christians to spend more time preaching the gospel of Jesus Christ to unsaved souls rather than politics.

Quoting from the scriptures, he reeled out nine areas to include: Giving, Tithing, Purity, Transparency, Forgiveness, Love, Evangelism, among others where Christians should ensure they walk with God.

Adeboye contended that if Christians focused more on preaching the Good News and winning souls to populate God’s Kingdom, God would take care of the political situation of the country.

He admonished Nigerians to engage more in profitable pastime than dissipating their time and energy on which political candidate was good or bad, saying no human being was good.

“Do you think God is sitting down in Heaven and scratching His head on who should win (the general election)? That has been settled before we were born. Don’t waste your energy discussing this one is good, that one is bad. Is there any human being that is good?” he queried rhetorically.

Adeboye said Christians should focus on telling God in prayers that His perfect will should be done in February, saying they should also understand that God could use even His enemies to carry out His will if need be.

“Ask for the perfect will of God for the elections, instead of worrying over who will win. God can use His enemy to fulfill his will.

“There are many of us who want to know the details of who will win the next elections, who is going to be president, who is going to be governor, …just say, Father let Your perfect will be done.

“What’s God’s perfect will? That if the fellow, who is going to come to power is going to be God’s enemy, it will be part of His perfect will. Because occasionally when God wants to move you to where He wants you to be, He may need to use an enemy. Joseph would never have fulfilled his destiny if his brother had loved him,” the man of God explained.

To drive home his point that politicians should not be trusted because of their penchant for double-speaking, the humorous lecturer-turned cleric told the congregation about the story of three characters among which were a Hindu, a Jew and a Politician whose car broke down at night after embarking on a journey and they had to pass the night at a farmer’s abode.

According to him, “Three people were in a car and the car broke down at night. So, they went to a farm to stay. And the farmer said “well, I have two beds, but the third would have to go and sleep in the barn. And the first one that went to sleep in the barn, I think a Hindu or so, very soon he came and said “sorry I can’t sleep in the barn because there is a cow there and the cow is our god and I can’t sleep with my god.

“So, the Jew said I can go and sleep there because cow is not my god. But very soon, he came back and said “oh, I’didnt know there is a pig there, a pig is an unclean animal to us. I can’t sleep with the pig.”

“And the third person said “no problem, cow or pig whatever, is not my problem. And he was a politician. He went to sleep and very soon, there was a knock on the door. The farmer opened the door and found the cow and the pig standing by the door and they said “we can’t sleep in the barn because there is a politician there.”

“So, the farmer asked them “why”? They said “because by tomorrow morning, we will become liars.” And he said to them ‘how come?’ And they said ‘because he’s (politician) been with us for just five minutes and he has promised us so many things. He promised us that as soon as he gets home, he would air-condition the barn, he would give us colour television…. .’ Do I need to say more?” the man of God concluded amid an applause from the congregation.

It will be recalled that Pastor Adeboye, in his New Year prophecy to the nation, has said he would keep to himself what God told him what would characterize the political atmosphere of the year, but added that “By the end of the year (2015), many will say “all is well that ends well.”

RCCG PRAYER POINTS FOR 40-DAYS FASTING (2ND JAN - 10TH FEB 2015 )

‪#‎THANKSGIVING‬

1 Thank you Lord for all You have done in our lives, in our homes, in His Church, in our nation Nigeria. ( 1 Chron.16 : 8 - 9 )

2 Thank you Lord for all Your provisions to us as individuals, as families and as a church. ( Deut.8 : 10 )

3 Thank you Lord for our salvation and for our heavenly inheritance. ( Col.1 : 12 )

4 Thank you Lord for forgiving us our sins Psalm.103 : 3.

5 Thank you Lord for divine health enjoyed throughout 2014. Exo.15 : 26.

6 Thank you Lord for delivering us from all forms of destruction in 2014. Psq.103 : 4.

7 Thank you Lord for all the good things you have satisfied me with in 2014. Psa.103 : 5.

8 Thank you Lord for not allowing us to be preys to our enemies. Psa.124 : 6.

9 Thank you Lord for causing us to escape all the traps the enemy set for us in 2014. Psa 124 : 7.

10 Thank you Lord for fighting all my battles for me in 2014. Exo.14 : 14.

‪#‎FOR_INDIVIDUALS‬

1 Father God, please make this year a year of rest for me and my family in Jesus name. 1 Kings 5 : 4; 2 Chron 14 : 7.

2 O Lord, in your mercy, release me from every judgement that I deserve in Jesus name. Ps. 25 : 7; Ps.94 : 18; Ps.145 : 8

3 O Lord, in this year of release, please set me and my family free from every form of bondage -¬‐ spiritual,physical, financial and emotional in Jesus name. Ex.2 : 23 - 25; Ex.20 : 2; Is.10 : 27.

4 Father God, please cancel all my debts supernaturally and let there be a transfer of the wealth of the heathen and the unrighteous into my storehouses in Jesus name. Deut.28 : 12; Zech.14 : 14; Isa.61 : 6 - 7.

5 O Lord, let there be a restoration of all the assets - land, property, investments, deposits that I have lost to creditors and fraudsters in Jesus name. 2 Kings.8 : 5 - 6; Joel 2 : 25 - 26.

6 Father God, let there be peace, unity, love and reconciliations in my family in the mighty name of Jesus. Ps.133 : 1 - 3; Gen.11 : 6.

7 Father, make this year a year of divine scholarship for me. Cause me to reap and to benefit from where I have not sowed or laboured in Jesus name. Deut. 6 : 10 - 11

8 O Lord, please protect me from every destruction and calamity reserved for the dsobedient this year in Jesus name. Job 31 : 3; Psa.55 : 23.

9 O Lord, please annul and set me free from every agreement or contract designed to shortchange me or frustrate me in Jesus name. Gen.31 : 7 - 9.

10 Every prison door and every ancient gate between me and my breakthrough, be lifted up in Jesus name. Psalm 24 : 7.

‪#‎FOR_RCCG‬.

1 Oh Lord, grant the RCCG Leadership (the General Overseer -Pastor E.A. Adeboye, the Governing Council, the Elders, the Provincial Pastors/Asst. Provincial Pastors/ Pastors) wisdom and deep revelation in the knowledge of Him. Eph.1 : 17 - 19; Phil.1 : 9 - 11.

2 O Lord, please be a wall of fire around the RCCG Leadership and safeguard them against all forms of satanic attack. Lk.22 : 31; Zech.2 : 5.

3 O Lord, we take authority against everything that the enemy would want to use to threaten the UNITY of RCCG. Psalm 133 : 1 - 3.

4 O Lord, in RCCG, give us pastors that will shepherd the flock with INTEGRITY of heart. Psalm 78 : 72.

5 Father, let your FRESH ANOINTING be upon all our Pastors. Psalm 23 : 5b; Psalm 92 : 10.

6 O Lord, we ask for WISDOM and UNDERSTANDING in the lives of all our parish/area/provincial pastors to lead the flock aright Colosians 1 : 9 - 11.

7 O Lord, let there be the full operation of the revelational, vocal, and power gifts in the lives of all RCCG ministers 1 Cor.12. : 6 ‐ 10.

8 O Lord, manifest your power and glory in all Holy Ghost Services, Conventions, Congress, Shiloh and Divine Encounter Programmes this year 2015. 2 Chron.5 : 14; Acts 16 : 26.

9 O Lord, let there be great expansion of your Kingdom through the parishes both in Nigeria and all nations of the earth. 
Mark 1 : 28.

10 O Lord, let nothing bring your Name or the name of RCCG into disrepute. Matt.5 : 13; Rom.2 : 24.

‪#‎FOR_NIGERIA‬.

1 O Lord, let our land Nigeria experience rest this year in Jesus name. 1 Kings 5 : 4; 2 Chron 14 : 7.

2 Father Lord, let your will be done in the forth-coming general elections. Give us leaders after your own will. Let your counsel alone stand. Matt.6 : 10; Prov.19 : 21.

3 O Lord, give us God-fearing leadership at local government, state & federal levels. 1 Timothy 2 : 2; Proverbs 29 : 2.

4 O Lord, deliver Nigeria from all forms of violence and acts of terrorism. Isaiah 60 : 18.

5 O Lord, deliver Nigeria from every form of natural disasters. Psalm 91 : 1 - 10.

6 Father, expose every form of corruption in our land and cause the nation to recover all that has been stolen through corrupt acts. Amos 5 : 11 - 12; Ezra 7: 26.

7 O Lord, Revive all the dead sectors of our economy. Ezekiel 37 : 1 - 14;

8 O Lord, cause Nigeria to be a debt-free nation. Deut.15 : 6; Deut.28 : 12.

9 O Lord, deliver Nigeria from all froms of financial waste. Isaiah 61 : 4.

10 Father, please restore Nigeria’s prominence as a leading economy in Africa. Joel 2 : 25 - 26: Deut 28 : 13.

May God bless you and strengthen you all