Why Older People Tend to Be Poor Decisionmakers

It’s not just dementia and cognitive decline that makes people more uncertain with age; changes in rationality and the way the elderly evaluate risk could explain why they are more likely to make the wrong decisions affecting everything from their health to their finances.

While numerous studies have documented a drop in cognitive function with age, there isn’t solid data to explain what drives this decline in decisionmaking, particularly in the face of uncertainty. But according to the latest research, poor choices made by the elderly can’t be attributed to their lack of math skills or a fear of financial losses. In the study, people over the age of 65 tended to be inconsistent when making decisions in which there was one obviously correct answer, like choosing between a definite win of $5 and a lottery with indefinite odds of winning the same amount.

The research, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, included 135 people, ranging in ages from 12 to 90, who made 320 decisions under different scenarios involving varying monetary gains or losses and differing levels of risk.

“We found it surprising and stunning,” says study co-author Ifat Levy, assistant professor of comparative medicine and neurobiology at Yale University. “These are highly functional older people, and they still got it wrong more often than younger people did.” She and her colleagues found that nearly half of the losses in possible income among the oldest people in the study resulted from this kind of error.

The results didn’t change if the oldest old were excluded — and the scientists tested for whether the effect was due to dementia. But all of the older participants performed well on multiple cognitive tests. Time pressure wasn’t a factor either.

Prior research showed that most people are willing to take bigger risks when there’s a possibility of gaining money than if there’s a risk of losing what they already have.

But the elderly in the study revealed nearly the opposite behavior, exposing a seemingly irrational and inconsistent thought process. While they were far less adventurous than younger adults when making choices about possible gains, they seemed to throw caution to the wind when it came to making decisions about potential loss.

Levy isn’t sure why this occurs, but speculates that it may have something to do with the older participants’ life experience. “I think maybe they think that they have less to lose as they are approaching an old age or the end of life,” she says. That could have less to do with cognitive changes and more to do with the shifting value they place on risk and benefit as they age.

That understanding could have implications not only for family members caring for elderly relatives, but also for policymakers as the proportion of older people in our society increases. The findings may help explain why the elderly are much more vulnerable than the young, for example, to financial losses and to making poor health decisions. “It’s definitely a big part of why they may get taken advantage of,” says Levy. “At the policy level, this is [maybe] something that should be taken into account in planning retirement and health options that are offered.”

In fact, other research suggests that the impairments in decisionmaking may extend beyond financial situations to situations like driving. And that’s why the researchers urge additional studies to uncover more about how the older life stage, independent of cognitive decline, changes the way the elderly make decisions.

Recognizing this, the authors conclude, “Although this may be a unique study of age and preference on this scale, it is important to recognize that it is in fact a very small study, conducted in two cities in the northeastern United States. This study should not be taken as offering any final characterization of decision making across the lifespan in the human population.” It does, however, suggest that we need to learn a lot more about the different ways that age affects decisions — and what can be done about it.

Four Things You Need to Know About Nigeria’s Boko Haram

1. The group was founded by a firebrand cleric called Mohammed Yusuf

Boko Haram is a Sunni terrorist organization that claims links to Al Qaeda and other groups of a similar ideological bent, both in the region and internationally. The group’s current incarnation was founded in 2003 under the leadership of a young Islamic cleric named Mohammed Yusuf. He was killed during a failed uprising against the Abuja government in July 2009 that spread across four northern states, but was successfully crushed by security forces. During the crackdown, Yusuf was arrested and killed while in custody. Since his death, his former deputy Abubakar Shekau has taken Boko Haram’s reins of power and launched a violent campaign largely targeting police stations, federal institutions and Christian villages across northeast Nigeria.

2. They kill students because they hate Western civilization

A rough translation of Boko Haram is: “Western civilization is forbidden.” The group’s main goal is to establish an Islamic caliphate within the country, which would allow for the implementation of sharia law. Boko Haram sees public schools as places where students are brainwashed by a “Western” curriculum, and earmarks them as significant targets in its war to drive secular, federal institutions from Nigeria’s Islamic heartland.

3. The head of the leader of Boko Haram is worth $2 million more than the head of the leader of the Afghan Taliban

To date, Boko Haram is believed to have been responsible for more than 3,500 deaths in Nigeria. Government troops have reported success against the rebels during a summer offensive. However, such claims are difficult to independently verify. Boko Haram does not posses the numbers or firepower needed to overthrow the state, but the fear is that they will consolidate ties with other insurgents in Africa, including the Algerian Al Qaeda and Somalia’s Al-Shabab, responsible for the recent massacre at Nairobi’s Westgate Mall.  The U.S. government’s bounty for Boko Haram leader Abubakar Shekau stands at $7 million. To put this in perspective, it’s $2 million more than what’s offered for the Afghan Taliban’s top man, Mullah Omar.

4. They don’t have many supporters, not even in Nigeria’s Muslim heartland

Boko Haram’s stronghold has traditionally resided in the Nigeria’s northeastern hinterlands. These are home to most of the country’s Muslim communities, but many are part of the Sufi sect and do not share Boko Haram’s extremist ideology. That doesn’t give them much protection from Nigerian troops, however, who have launched multiple offensives against Boko Haram over the years. Rights groups have accused state security forces of razing civilians’ homes during these campaigns, and torturing and summarily executing people with suspected, albeit largely unproven, ties to Boko Haram.